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NBA: Memphis is marvelous
2010-01-29
The Memphis Grizzlies have learned to win games with defense during their remarkable run since mid-December, and that’s exactly how they beat the San Antonio Spurs earlier this month. Even with the blueprint to beat the Spurs, winning in San Antonio has been another matter. The Grizzlies will catch a break as they try to avoid their 10th straight loss at the AT&T Center on Friday night, though, as the Spurs won’t have Tony Parker due to an ankle injury. The hosts are a 5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com and have caught the attention of 64% of bettors.
Memphis (25-19, 26-18 ATS) has won 15 of 19 games since Dec. 18, covering the spread a fantastic 14 times, a record that’s the best in the Western Conference in that stretch and has helped move it into playoff position.
The Grizzlies have averaged 106.7 points in that stretch, but they’ve displayed some defensive prowess over the past few weeks. Memphis held San Antonio (26-18, 22-21-1 ATS) to 41.4 percent shooting in a 92-86 home win Jan. 16, and limited its last three opponents to 90.3 points per game - 13.1 below its average allowance.
One of the biggest reasons for that defensive improvement is center Marc Gasol, who’s one of five players in the league to average at least 1.5 blocks and 1.0 steal. Gasol has also refined his offensive game, giving the Grizzlies a fourth scorer that averages at least 15.0 points alongside Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo. Gasol had 25 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and two steals in Wednesday’s 99-93 win at Detroit.
Memphis has won its past four games in which it failed to score 100 points after going 2-11 in its first 13 such contests. “We’re a different team,” Gasol told the NBA’s official Web site. “We’ve changed our mentality and we’re working harder.” Gasol is certainly correct with Memphis 16-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.
The Grizzlies have won their past three games by six points or fewer, and Wednesday’s victory was their 25th - one more than they had last season and they are 14-4 ATS in up-tempo games where they attempt 84 or more shots this season.
A win in San Antonio for the first time since Feb. 26, 2005 (4-5 ATS in that span), would tie the Grizzlies with the Spurs for second place in the Southwest Division, and they won’t have to worry about one of San Antonio’s top offensive threats.
The Spurs snapped a three-game losing streak Wednesday with an impressive 105-90 win over Atlanta, but Parker sprained his left ankle and will sit Friday and possibly Sunday against Denver. “We’re going to have to adjust to it,” said Tim Duncan, who grabbed a career-high 27 rebounds and scored 21 points. “We’re trying to get something going here and then we lose Tony. We’ll find a way to get it done.” Finding a way has been a specialty of San Antonio who is 11-3 ATS facing clubs that hoist up 83 or more shots a contest.
Parker averaged 18.6 points and 7.0 assists during the Spurs’ nine straight home wins over the Grizzlies, but he was held to four points in the loss in Memphis last month. Duncan and the Grizzlies’ Randolph each had 23 points in that game - Randolph has scored 20 or more in eight straight games - but the Spurs will want to keep close tabs on Mayo. The third overall pick of the 2008 draft has averaged 30.5 points in his two visits to San Antonio - the last of which was a 106-103 overtime loss on Dec. 27, 2008.
With Parker sidelined, the Spurs are five-point favorites with 199 total. Surprisingly, San Antonio is 5-19 ATS revenging a road loss since last year, losing by an average of almost two points per game. Here is a crazy number for the home team, they are 14-1 UNDER after a game where they had two or less steals. The Grizzlies are roaring with confidence, 15-1 ATS after playing a game as favorite this season and 14-4 OVER as a road underdog.
NBA: Chicago is bullish on road trip
2010-01-29
The Chicago Bulls’ season-high seven-game road trip had all the makings of a disaster after they opened with losses to a pair of Western Conference also-rans. Four games later, it’s looking like the spark that’s turned the season around. The Bulls try to close the trip with a fifth straight win Friday night against the New Orleans Hornets, who look to protect one of the West’s best home records upon returning from their own successful road swing. The Hornets are the 4-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, but 70% of bettors prefer the piping-hot Bulls.
Chicago (22-22, 21-21-2 ATS) has won four in a row for the third time since Christmas, but this latest run is easily the most surprising. The Bulls were 4-15 on the road after losses to Golden State and the Los Angeles Clippers to open this trip, but they’ve knocked off four consecutive playoff contenders.
Coach Vinny Del Negro (who was rumored to be almost fired right after Christmas) has seen his team shoot 50.6 percent from the floor while holding opponents to 39.4 percent, and its most impressive defensive effort came Wednesday in Oklahoma City. Chicago limited the Thunder to 36.9 percent shooting, hounding Kevin Durant into a 7-for-19 effort and leaving with a 96-86 win. The Bulls win made them 7-0 ATS in road games playing against team with a 51 to 60 percent win percentage this season and tonight offers another such opportunity.
Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas keyed a 96-85 win over New Orleans (25-20, 22-23 ATS) on Dec. 26 at the United Center. Noah had 17 points, 18 rebounds and four blocks, while Thomas had 21 points and nine boards off the bench. Chicago, which has followed its previous four-game win streaks with at least two straight losses, hasn’t won five in a row on the road since concluding the 2005-06 season on a six-game run. The Bulls are 17-6 ATS playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years.
The Hornets have won 16 of 20 at home (10-10 ATS), where they return following an impressive trip. New Orleans closed with a third victory in four games - its only loss coming in overtime to Denver on Saturday - after Chris Paul had 38 points in a 123-110 win over Golden State on Wednesday. The Hornets were 6-15 and 9-12 ATS on the road heading into the trip. “This was a big trip for us. We won in some tough venues,” said Paul, who averaged 27.8 points on 58.8 percent shooting. “Everyone knows the road has been our Achilles’ heel so far.”
The play of Paul’s new backcourt mate has also been critical. Rookie Marcus Thornton averaged 18.5 points in the final two games of the trip, starting after New Orleans shipped Devin Brown to the Bulls for backup center Aaron Gray on Monday. Brown, who has yet to play for the Bulls, led New Orleans with 22 points in Chicago last month.
The Hornets’ fortunes Friday, though, may depend on David West. The two-time All-Star, scoring 17.7 points per game, has averaged 11.0 in the last two losses to the Bulls and his team is 3-5 in last eight meetings with the Bulls with two covers.
New Orleans is a four-point favorite with total of 198 at Sportsbook.com and is 24-9 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs. opponent and is 8-1 UNDER at home trying to get even with same team off a road loss. Despite the four consecutive road upsets, normally Chicago doesn’t set up very well in a spot like this with 12-26 ATS record off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. They are 9-0 OVER as visiting dogs off the upset surprise win by 10 points or more.
NBA: Betting NBA teams on the rise
2010-01-22
Twenty-six NBA teams will be in action this Friday night, however two matchups stand out which won’t get the lion’s share of wagering dollars. The reason is these are not public teams, all with a history of professional basketball failure or little history at all. Charlotte heads south to take on division rival Atlanta and Oklahoma City travels to the mid-south to tackle Memphis. Ironically, all four teams are enjoying breakout seasons. Read on for a look at both games, then head over to the BETTING TRENDS page on Sportsbook.com to see the latest odds and where the money is going for all of Friday’s action.
Atlanta hopes to avoid Charlotte’s web
The Charlotte Bobcats (21-19, 25-15 ATS) are on the prowl and suddenly dangerous having tied a franchise record with six consecutive wins (4-2 ATS), all at Time Warner Cable Arena. There is nothing fluky about Charlotte winning either, with an average margin of victory 15.5 points per game. The Bobcats are 9-1 since 2010 arrived. “I can’t explain this,” coach Larry Brown said. “Guys are playing at a high level.”
Charlotte is a 6.5-point underdog at Sportsbook.com and is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season, as they prepare for Southeast Division leader Atlanta (27-14 SU and ATS). The Hawks have been solid all year and have won six of their last eight (5-3 ATS). Atlanta is well aware of how Charlotte is playing however.
“They’re playing extremely well from a defensive standpoint so we’ll be tested without a doubt,” coach Mike Woodson said. “We’ll see where we stand from a defensive standpoint because they’ve got three, four guys that can really score the basketball and Jackson coming over from Golden State has really helped their ballclub.” The Bobcats are first in fewest points allowed in the NBA (92.2) and fourth in field goal defense (44.1).
Atlanta is seeking a quality 4-1 homestand, before heading out of town to play four of its next five away from home. The Hawks have the league’s best home record at 17-5 and are 15-7 ATS. Atlanta lost by 20 points (103-83) at Charlotte back on Nov.6 and are 16-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
The Hawks would seem to be in a solid situation since home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home win against a division rival, cover 75 percent of the time (36-12). And Charlotte is a mere 3-15 on the road, losing by 5.8 points per game; however is 11-7 ATS. Sports South carries the action at 7:30 Eastern.
How did this happen?
It’s been suggested from time to time the NBA’s playoff structure should be altered. Presently the Western Conference has far more good teams than the Eastern Conference, which has been the case for the last several years. If the league went to taking the best 16 teams by records, the West would horde 11 of those spots as the standings are today. Included would be two unlikely teams, Oklahoma City and Memphis.
Like the line from the classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, “Who are these guys?”
Right out of Ripley’s Believe It or Not, The Thunder and Grizzlies are the two best teams in the West the last month. Oklahoma City is 11-4 and 9-6 ATS since Dec. 23. The Thunder is a very young team and amazingly, coach Scott Brooks has been able to convince them that defense is the way to get better. In Oklahoma City’s last 14 games, they have held opponents to 93.6 points per game on 41.9 shooting, the latter easily the best in the NBA. The Thunder (24-18, 25-17 ATS) won by two at Minnesota in their last outing as seven point favorites and are an awesome 14-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.
Memphis (22-19, 24-17 ATS) has been right on Oklahoma City’s tail, winning nine of its last 13 and their turnaround goes even a little further back sporting a 12-4 SU and ATS record since Dec. 18. The Grizzlies are also a youthful squad, with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and still relatively young Zach Randolph. The Grizz come into this showdown 17-6 ATS after having won three of their last four games.
Memphis is a 3.5-point favorite with total of 204.5. The Grizzlies lost to Oklahoma City at home back in December and are 15-5 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Thunder will seek their fifth win in six tries over Memphis since moving to Oklahoma (4-1 ATS) and have a recipe for success. If OKC scores 100 or more points and holds the opposition under that number, they are 11-0 ATS this season.
Keep a close eye on the total, with the Grizzlies 10-0 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread this year and Oklahoma City 12-3 OVER in road games having played eight or more games in 14 days. Fox Sports in Oklahoma will carry this contest of two up and comers starting 8 Eastern.
The StatFox Power Lines for these games show Charlotte by 3, Memphis by 3
